Gonzales Cartoon

enjoy.

The Dollar

The Dollar is extrememly important to US influence in the world... or at least, it should have been. With the climing defecit and more US bonds being shoved into the marketplace the dollar is slipping and it's not hard to see why. Remember that relative of yours who always wants to borrow money but it never looks like you'll get any of it back? At some point you're going to stop lending him money. Especially if that relative happens to have decided that it would be a good idea to insult you. When annother currency overtakes the dollar as the favored currency, America stops being an economic superpower. Foreign Investment is in the trash and the worst is yet to come. When the dollar is no longer the favored currency we will be unable to finance our debt anymore and with the size of our debt that's an extremely big deal.

Almost 70 percent of the 56 central banks that provided details of changes in their reserves said they increased exposure to the 12-nation currency, according to the survey conducted by Central Banking Publications Ltd., a London-based publisher, between September and December 2004. Fifty-two percent said they reduced exposure to the dollar. ``It only takes about a 1 percent shift in these reserves to have implications for the dollar,'' said Michael Metcalfe, a senior strategist in London at State Street Corp., the world's largest managers of funds for institutional investors. ``This isn't going away anytime soon.'' The share of dollars in total reserve holdings was 63.8 percent at the end of 2003 from 63.5 percent in 2002 and down from 66.9 percent in 2001, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual report in April 2004. The euro proportion rose to 19.7 percent from 19.3 percent in 2002 and 16.7 percent in 2001.

It's happening and it's scary. Here is the view from China. No other country owns more US bonds than China and that makes what they have to say very important indeed.

``The U.S. dollar is no longer, in our opinion is no longer, (seen) as a stable currency and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time,'' Fan [director of the state- owned National Economic Research Institute in Beijing] said, speaking in English, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. ``So the real issue is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more manageable reference, say euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified systems.''

Sources: Euro Gains After Survey Shows Central Banks Increasing Holdings Bloomberg - Jan 24 If China Shuns Dollar, Look Out U.S. Bonds: William Pesek Jr Bloomberg - Jan 28

Update on the Andrea Stewart-Cousins case

So, This name hasn't been up on the blog for a while and it's not because I've been slacking off I promise you. As far as I can tell in the past 2 days everyone suddenly decided that it was time for an update even though there's been no real news. The Appellate Division of the Second Department is still debating the case behind closed doors as they have been for what is starting to seem like forever. Part of this may be caused by the fact that, as is common practice in this court, there are only 4 Judges going over the case. It is assumend that they are split 2-2 but because of the court's secracy actually working, nobody konws. It is becomming more likely that a fifth judge may join the case if this group cannot come to a conclusion, but before that fifth member can join the precedings they would have to review the entire 1,400 page record of the case. The best part is that each side has already stated that they will appeal to the Court of Appeals. It is possible that the Judges are trying to make a unanomyous decision and write an opinon that would stand up to the higher court, perhaps speeding up the decision at that level. Throughout all of this, Spano's staff has stayed on but nobody is formally representing the 35th district. Sources: State Senate race still in limbo The Journal News - Jan 23 Lost in Yonkers New York Daily News - Jan 23

Musings

I haven't posted in a while. I've had a lot of work to do, and I was trying not to swear at bush as he was sworn in. This is a conversation that I had over AIM with a friend of mine from the political arena and I thought that it was worth sharing. (IM names removed)

B******* (10:54:54 PM): everyone's pulling for Dean DNC Chair S******* (10:55:04 PM): and he's gonna get it B******* (10:57:46 PM): it's esentially what's holding me to the Democratic party right now B*******(11:01:03 PM): sorry if that's a little grim S******* (11:01:17 PM): that's alright S******* (11:01:21 PM): grim is good S******* (11:01:27 PM): we need grim to put is in the right direction

Dean was on This Week on ABC just a few shorrt minutes ago and I watched. He looked good, but he was nervous. I've watched him enough to know that. Hopefully thismeans that everything is going well. Sometimes it feels like we just wait around for something to go wrong and I sure hope that it doesn't. The coverage of Dean has, I would say, been better than it was at the end of the Primaries - but I wouldn't say that it's been good. Also, He should have answered the question about Presidential candidates from the south saying that the Democratic Party ought not need a candidate from the south to win the presidency and that's what we're trying to build. Keep at it Dean. We're with you.

The wisdom of Krugman

Ok guys these are the things that you need to look for. Krugman has been doing some great work at the New York Times just as he always does (Tuesdays and Fridays) but this comes from Rolling Stone.

Rolling Stone: What would you say to college students and young workers who are convinced they'll never see a dime of the money they put into Social Security? Krugman: You've been sold a scare story. Right now Social Security has a large and growing trust fund -- a surplus that has been collected to pay for the surge in benefits we'll experience when the baby boomers start to retire. If you're twenty now, you'll be hitting retirement around 2052. That's the year the Congressional Budget Office says the trust fund will run out. In fact, many economists say it may never run out. If the economy continues to grow at an average rate, the trust fund could quite possibly last forever. RS: But what if stocks do well? Isn't it possible that privatization would work? K: The only possible way that stock returns can be high enough to make privatization work is if the U.S. economy grows at three to four percent a year for the next fifty years. But Social Security's own trustees expect the economy's growth rate to slow to 1.8 percent. If that happens -- if their own assumptions are correct -- then privatization would be a disaster. And if that doesn't happen -- if the economy continues to grow at a steady rate -- then the trust fund is good for the rest of the century, and we don't need privatization. RS: If there's no crisis in Social Security, why aren't the Democrats saying that more clearly and forcefully? K: There's a lot of timidity. They're desperately afraid of seeming like "Oh, well -- we have our heads in the sand, and we're not active." I would like to see them step up to the plate and say that these claims that we're going to have a crisis sometime in the next fifteen years is just garbage. Bush is handing them an opportunity by making this the centerpiece of his agenda. Democrats should treat privatizing Social Security the way Republicans treated Clinton's health-care plan -- they should say, "This is a disaster, and we will stand against it." Social Security is simply not the biggest problem facing the government today. *bold qualifiers added by me.

This is going to be a reall issue if the new Party Chair doesn't make an issue of it. Rahm Emanuel, head of the DCCC, was on Meet the Press yesterday and simply danced around the issue. I could figure out what his position is, but it was much too timid. He certainly did not debunk the crisis theory well. The Democratic Party is looking for its head in a DNC chair. I hope that they will find someone who can lead them instead of provide sound bites opposite Republicans on CNN. Source: The Fake Crisis Rolling Stone - Jan 13

"The Water Heater"

The backlash of the Armstrong revelations

After the fallout concerning Armstrong Williams, there was a punch back against Marcos of Daily DOS and Jerome of MyDD and their work for the Dean campaign. There's are two things that the Wall Street Journal, who reported the story, didn't get: a response from those involved, and that there was indeed disclosure in this case. Surprise, surprse, this story is tied to Novak, who I touched on

"In announcing on the January 14 edition of CNN's Crossfire that former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's presidential campaign had hired two political bloggers "to say positive things about Dr. Dean," co-host Robert D. Novak failed to note -- when co-host Paul Begala raised the issue -- that one of the bloggers shut down his site while working for the campaign and the other fully disclosed his financial relationship with Dean. As Media Matters for America has documented, Novak himself has a history of non-disclosure, repeatedly discussing Regnery Publishing, Inc., books without disclosing that he has both personal and financial ties to the company." article

Sources: More perspective on "we" and "our" of DFA MyDD - Jan 15 Laura Gross from DFA weighs in on Kos/Dean story Daily KOS - Jan 15 Trippi's responseDaily KOS - Jan 15 "No Disclosure" Novak failed to mention that Dean bloggers had disclosed their financial relationshipMedia Matters - Jan 14 Armstrong Williams and the Right Rosenburg - Jan 14 It's a Pig, Anyway You Look at It CJR- Jan14 *there is so much about this out there that these are just some of the links

...for men

Q: How do you know that a skin care product is meant for men? A: They tell you what your skin should look like! It's generally assumed that women know these things - but not us guys. Oh well, I just though that this was hilarious! Source: Gillete Personal Care

Thank you Guv,

Governor Dean chose these words today as he announced his candidacy for the Chair of the Democratic Party:

"All of these experiences have only reaffirmed what I know to be true. There is only one party that speaks to the hopes and dreams of all Americans. It is the party you have already given so much to. It is the Democratic Party. We can win elections only by standing up for what we believe."

Thanks Guv, that's what I was looking for. If this is still your party then I'm with you all the way. Let's take this party back so that we can take our country back. Source: I'm Running January 11 - Blog for America

News about the news

Who announced that this week was national talk about the media week? This'll be a long post and that's not even covering everything that concerned the media this past week. First, words from the oddest of places (at least as far as this blog is concerned)...

WILLIAMS: Well, let me explain something to you, though. On our show, where they pay for the advertising, we did periodically disclose to the audience that we were being paid. BILL O'REILLY (host): No, but you have to say, though, if you're going to do any kind of work for the DOE, you have to say they paid for this every time. It's called full disclosure. WILLIAMS: Oh, OK, I see your point.

That's right, even O'Reilly knows that you've got to tell someone if you're impartial. If your emplyoer has a dog in the fight then you are not, I repeat not, impartial. This isn't an unwritten rule like you can tell Robert Novak anything and know that it'll come out from one of his annonomyous sources, this is actually important to people who call themselves journalists. Speaking of Novak, he's not much better:

Media Matters has previously noted Novak's multiple conflicts of interest in writing and speaking about Unfit for Command: His son, Alex Novak, is director of marketing for its publisher, Regnery Publishing, Inc. In addition, Robert Novak is a trustee of The Phillips Foundation, along with Thomas L. Phillips and Alfred S. Regnery. Phillips is chairman of Eagle Publishing, Inc., of which Regnery is a subsidiary. Alfred Regnery is a director of Eagle Publishing and, according to Eagle's website, is "president of Regnery Publishing, Inc." Eagle publishes the Evans-Novak Political Report, which Novak edits.

Sources: Armstrong Williams interviews January 10 - Media Matters for America Novak Conflict of interest January 4 - Media Matters for America On to Fox where Murdoch is consolidating his empire. (Consolidation == bad) will evaluate to true. Now that you're decently depressed, it's time to look at some good news. CNN has decided that it ought to live up to its name and be a news network. They're making an effort to concentrate less on talking heads and more on the news. CNN had more people in the Indian Ocean region than the other networks lately and they're also ditching Crossfire, possibly responsible for jumpstarting the talking heads movement. To top it off, they're firing Tucker Carlson. This makes me extremely happy, and not just because he didn't really eat his shoe. Sources: CNN and Tucker Carlson January 6 - New York Times Carlson eats a shoe-shaped cake July 9, 2003 - CNN Finally, on to CBS. CBS fired one employee and asked 3 more to resign over those bad documents about Bush's Guard service. First a note, just because the story is true doesn't mean that you can justify using false documents to support it. Other than that, I think that CBS has been more than professional dealing with this entire "scandal" and I use the word very lightly. Now, I'm not a big fan of CBS. I think that most of their programming is about as intersting as elevator music and that they did a horrible job handling their Regan documentary/docudrama, but this time they've done well. First of all, they actually looked into the story and the documents. That's a lot more than Fox ever does and if you think that they have nothing to look into then I'll point you back over to Media Matters to have a look around. The fact that they then took action even though the documents could not be proved to be false is like extra credit as far as I'm concerned. I don't regard CNN or CBS to be good solid news sources yet but they're getting brownie points this week. Source: Panel Finds CBS News Rushed Report on Bush's Guard Record January 10 - New York Times

I've been thinking...

...about what I wanted to say about the electoral vote being confirmed. That day I felt both like I wanted to write up my resignation from the Democratic party and that I was willing to do anything for certain members of the party. I honestly haven't managed to piece together what I think coherently yet. That night I turned to the one person who changed my life politically, Howard Dean. I was saddened to find that there was no statement from him on his website, but there was certainly coverage of the days events by other members of the DFA blogosphere. Instead I turned to his book, "You Have the Power" which I recieved from my brother for Christmas. At the end of the first chapter I found this passage which was oddly relevant.

Ordinary Americans have to hold the Democrats' feet to the fire - so that real democracy can become an ingrained habit of mind. We've got to open up the party's eyes and ears so that those in Washington will see past the anger they heard in my campaign to the suppressed hopes and dreams of the people who lifted their voices up in this election cycle. We've go to make the Democratic Party the party of opportunity and equality, of American values, again. We can't just say it; we have to do it. We've got to distinguish ourselves by bringing out what's best in America: oour spirit and our faith and our egalitarian impulse. And we've got to be sure that ordinary people are never forgotten by the political process. Because government "of the people, by the people, and for the people" has no meaning if we let "the people" drop out of the equation."

This is what I needed to hear. I know that Dean is running for the DNC Chair and I really want him to get it. He is my political guiiding light. When I hear him speak or read his writing it sounds like America to me. Some of his words stay with me the way that parts of the Declaration of Independance, the Constitution, and the Federalist Papers do. If this party continues the way it has without budging I have faith that Dean will split. This is a last option and I hope that it does not come to pass, but if it does, I will probably follow. The next step is just on the horizon. There will be new leadership of some sort and I sincerely hope that no matter who it is that (s)he embraces us in the grassroots.