Polling vs. Voting in Ohio: Something's gotta give.

In this past election, Ohio had several different measures on the ballots including several different rules that would effect the voting rules in that sate. All measures about voting failed however a critical financial matter also on the ballot passed. Here's where it gets interesting: All of the measures were going to pass based on polling before the vote. The numbers on the first measure were as close as anyone could hope for:

(1)A poll run on the front page of the Columbus Dispatch on Sunday, November 6, showed Issue One passing with 53% of the vote. Official tallies showed Issue One passing with 54% of the vote. The polling used by the Dispatch had wrapped up the Thursday before the Tuesday election. Its precision on Issue One was consistent with the Dispatch's historic polling abilities, which have been uncannily accurate for decades. This poll was based on 1872 registered Ohio voters, with a margin of error at plus/minus 2.5 percentage points and a 95% confidence interval. The Issue One outcome would appear to confirm the Dispatch polling operation as the state's gold standard.

Ok, so we know that the poll was dead on when it came to the first measure, but here's where it gets interesting...

(2)ISSUE 2 (Allow easier absentee balloting) PRE-POLLING: 59% Yes, 33% No, 9% Undecided FINAL RESULT: 36% Yes, 63% No ISSUE 3 (Revise campaign contribution limits) PRE-POLLING: 61% Yes, 25% No, 14% Undecided FINAL RESULT: 33% Yes, 66% No ISSUE 4 (Ind. Comm. to draw Congressional Districts) PRE-POLLING: 31% Yes, 45% No, 25% Undecided FINAL RESULT: 30% Yes, 69% No ISSUE 5 (Ind. Board instead of Sec. of State to oversee elections) PRE-POLLING: 41% Yes, 43% No, 16% Undecided FINAL RESULT: 29% Yes, 70% No

Issue Five is the really important ones because it goes right after the person charged with running the voting, the Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell. And things only get better from there. Everyone in Ohio voted on electronic voting machines brought in by Blackwell. These have many problems in the past and look like they have continued to have issues as seen in the other article linked below about Lucas County. While I haven't put foreword any views on these yet, from what I know about them, they are unstable, unreliable, and easy to tamper with. Also, a paper trail is not a suitable solution to the problems. I'll try to hit on all that in the future. Something's goota give. Who was right? The polls or the election machines? For that matter, when these two started diverging, why did all the networks running the exit polls say, "Oops, we must have been wrong." What we need is to be able to step back and say, waitaminute, something's wrong here. If the networks really want a scoop here it is. Get your crews exit polling in 2006. Sources: (1)Has American Democracy died an electronic death in Ohio 2005's referenda defeats? - Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman, November 11 (2)The Staggeringly Impossible Results of Ohio's '05 Election - Huffington Post, November 13 (3)State plans to investigate voting chaos; Tuesday's problems are latest for Lucas County - Toledo Blade, November 10